Femtocell shipments much lower than expected in 2009, says ABI Research
ABI Research has scaled down its estimation of femtocell shipments to only about 350,000 in 2009, compared to shipments of 790,000 that it forecast in April.
"Even femtocell vendors are a bit surprised that the operators haven't pushed femtocells as much or as soon as expected," said practice director Aditya Kaul. "We expect that deployments in 2010 will pick up but will be slower than expected - our data suggests about a 40% reduction on previous estimates."
All the large operators in the US have femtocell offerings including AT&T, Verizon Wireless and Sprint. Vodafone in the UK also has a femtocell service and recently China Unicom announced its femto offering.
Still the pace of adoption has been slow. Carriers are tight-lipped about their reasoning. While some observers say femtocells have yet to prove their value, Kaul points to a combination of other factors: the general economic malaise, which makes the US$150 pricetag of an unsubsidized femtocell harder to swallow; the time operators need to get their systems and networks ready for a femtocell deployment and to devise innovative pricing plans; a fear in some quarters that a rapid increase in femtocell numbers would cause interference in the macro network.
Kaul concluded, "We still believe in this market's potential. We anticipate that by 2014, shipments will only be about 10% lower than our previous estimates. The drivers are real, but it will take longer than anticipated. Next year will be critical - if conditions don't improve by the end of 2010, some smaller vendors may find themselves in trouble."
"Even femtocell vendors are a bit surprised that the operators haven't pushed femtocells as much or as soon as expected," said practice director Aditya Kaul. "We expect that deployments in 2010 will pick up but will be slower than expected - our data suggests about a 40% reduction on previous estimates."
All the large operators in the US have femtocell offerings including AT&T, Verizon Wireless and Sprint. Vodafone in the UK also has a femtocell service and recently China Unicom announced its femto offering.
Still the pace of adoption has been slow. Carriers are tight-lipped about their reasoning. While some observers say femtocells have yet to prove their value, Kaul points to a combination of other factors: the general economic malaise, which makes the US$150 pricetag of an unsubsidized femtocell harder to swallow; the time operators need to get their systems and networks ready for a femtocell deployment and to devise innovative pricing plans; a fear in some quarters that a rapid increase in femtocell numbers would cause interference in the macro network.
Kaul concluded, "We still believe in this market's potential. We anticipate that by 2014, shipments will only be about 10% lower than our previous estimates. The drivers are real, but it will take longer than anticipated. Next year will be critical - if conditions don't improve by the end of 2010, some smaller vendors may find themselves in trouble."
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