Commentary: Handset OS landscape heads to uncharted territory, says IMS Research
The mobile handset operating system (OS) market used to be simple. For a smartphone, an OEM or operator selected from Symbian, Windows Mobile, or Palm and licensed their choice for a particular device. For their feature phones, OEM's developed proprietary software stacks on top of a more basic real time operating system (RTOS). Then, OEMs and operators threw a couple of applications on the handset, and started shipping. Although this is a somewhat simplified representation of the process, it is largely accurate in principle.
However, that was the past, and although much of that process remains the same, the mobile handset OS market is changing at lightning speed. New entrants are emerging in the smartphone OS space. Application developers are finding new online storefronts to distribute their products on a seemingly daily basis. Demands for OS functionality are changing as more users bring their online experience to their mobile with increasing frequency.
Amidst all of the announcements and media hype, it can be difficult to see where the market is headed. But arguments for the handset OS market's trajectory and potential landing place can be made.
Operating systems as application enablers
Perhaps the single largest driver of change in the smartphone OS market has been the evolution of the handset application environment. Third party-developed applications are rapidly becoming essential components to a user's smartphone experience, and in many ways, this has afforded developers with great leverage.
What does it mean? OS developers are recognizing that a user's decision when selecting a smartphone will be made in part by the applications available. As a result, there has been a significant effort made to woo the development community on the part of each of the operating systems. This has included providing more advanced software development kits and greater access to application programming interfaces, in addition to being generally more responsive to developer requests. Likewise, developer preference has been a key driver for the success of open source platforms in the smartphone OS space, and that trend is likely to continue.
The emergence of open source operating systems
The caveat to this trend is that Linux has long existed as an open source OS in the mobile space. However, fragmentation crippled the potential for Linux in handsets until standards groups and Linux integrators were able to make Linux implementation more practical. Now, we are experiencing not only an uptake in Linux in mobile handsets, but also the entrance of Android into the market and Symbian's announcement that they will open their source code.
What does it mean? We ar left with a smartphone market that is suddenly largely open source, or headed that way. If one looks at the smartphone OS available for licensing, namely Windows Mobile, S60, Android, or a Linux variant, Window's Mobile stands out as the only OS that won't be open source by the end of 2009.
As a result, the business model for OS licensing is changing. Open source operating systems give OEMs the opportunity to bypass the licensing and royalty costs associated with the old way of implementing an OS. However, open source operating systems are not without cost. Most often, an open source OS requires significant software development before shipping on a device. That development can be done by an OEM, operator, or third party software integrator. In each instance, the feasibility of realizing the potential cost savings of open source depends on the amount of development required and the number of devices being shipped. Nevertheless, the fact that viable open source OS options exist marks a significant shift in the OS market, and do not expect the market to revert back to the old business models any time soon.
New entrants to the market
The watershed moment in this trend was probably Apple's success with the original iPhone. The market then saw Google drive the development and release of Android. Most recently, Palm debuted its WebOS, which we'll consider a new entrant, given its significant departure from the previous Palm platform.
What does it mean? The smartphone market has become increasingly competitive, driven in large part by software differentiation. Positive results for the OSX and Android platforms have highlighted the potential for companies with software know-how to provide a compelling OS product to the market and compete. This only intensifies the battle over segments of the application developer community and I expect, will drive some of the initiative to improve application portability across platforms. For example, it has been announced that Palm's WebOS will utilize web standards like Java, HTML, and C/C++. By allowing developers to write programs in these web standards, Palm has lowered the cost of developing an application for their platform, aiding them in the struggle to secure developer mindshare.
A need for improved security
It is only a matter of time. Smartphones are becoming more and more like mobile computers, and as they do, the reality of the need for mobile security becomes more apparent. Mobile data usage is on the rise, and the mobile internet experience is advancing to approach the desktop experience. Likewise, the same applications that are driving shifts in the OS market present a very real threat to handset security, as users are introducing more and more third-party developed code into the handset.
What does it mean? Historically, operators have been able to restrict much of the traffic on their networks, and prevent large-scale viruses and malware. However, phishing sites and emails are becoming more clever, and the number of mobile users with more advanced browsing capabilities is steadily growing. Additionally, most application distribution channels have recognized the need to certify the applications provided in their online stores. Even still, smartphones are expected to begin implementing more complete antivirus suites, and security within the hardware will be emphasized as well.
The blurring distinction between smartphones and feature-rich phones
The last key trend involves the convergence of the smartphone and feature-rich handset tiers. Smartphones, now targeting consumers in addition to enterprise users, are becoming more diverse in their form factor, hardware capabilities, and average selling price. Likewise, feature-rich handsets are now requiring greater multimedia and applications processing.
What does it mean? Expect these two handset tiers to continue to converge in terms of form factor and function. As a result, the software functionality in feature-rich handsets will need to improve. The proprietary RTOS solutions that have been employed by OEMs in the past can be quite costly to maintain, and making substantial changes to them can be even more expensive. If increasing functionality necesitates a feature phone with a separate application processor in addition to a comms processor, it makes sense to utilize a Linux standard OS, which allows for a smaller memory and processing footprint than exists for operating systems like Windows Mobile or Android. The end result could be a significant market for Linux in feature-rich phones, where proprietary RTOS solutions have existed in the past.
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However, that was the past, and although much of that process remains the same, the mobile handset OS market is changing at lightning speed. New entrants are emerging in the smartphone OS space. Application developers are finding new online storefronts to distribute their products on a seemingly daily basis. Demands for OS functionality are changing as more users bring their online experience to their mobile with increasing frequency.
Amidst all of the announcements and media hype, it can be difficult to see where the market is headed. But arguments for the handset OS market's trajectory and potential landing place can be made.
Operating systems as application enablers
Perhaps the single largest driver of change in the smartphone OS market has been the evolution of the handset application environment. Third party-developed applications are rapidly becoming essential components to a user's smartphone experience, and in many ways, this has afforded developers with great leverage.
What does it mean? OS developers are recognizing that a user's decision when selecting a smartphone will be made in part by the applications available. As a result, there has been a significant effort made to woo the development community on the part of each of the operating systems. This has included providing more advanced software development kits and greater access to application programming interfaces, in addition to being generally more responsive to developer requests. Likewise, developer preference has been a key driver for the success of open source platforms in the smartphone OS space, and that trend is likely to continue.
The emergence of open source operating systems
The caveat to this trend is that Linux has long existed as an open source OS in the mobile space. However, fragmentation crippled the potential for Linux in handsets until standards groups and Linux integrators were able to make Linux implementation more practical. Now, we are experiencing not only an uptake in Linux in mobile handsets, but also the entrance of Android into the market and Symbian's announcement that they will open their source code.
What does it mean? We ar left with a smartphone market that is suddenly largely open source, or headed that way. If one looks at the smartphone OS available for licensing, namely Windows Mobile, S60, Android, or a Linux variant, Window's Mobile stands out as the only OS that won't be open source by the end of 2009.
As a result, the business model for OS licensing is changing. Open source operating systems give OEMs the opportunity to bypass the licensing and royalty costs associated with the old way of implementing an OS. However, open source operating systems are not without cost. Most often, an open source OS requires significant software development before shipping on a device. That development can be done by an OEM, operator, or third party software integrator. In each instance, the feasibility of realizing the potential cost savings of open source depends on the amount of development required and the number of devices being shipped. Nevertheless, the fact that viable open source OS options exist marks a significant shift in the OS market, and do not expect the market to revert back to the old business models any time soon.
New entrants to the market
The watershed moment in this trend was probably Apple's success with the original iPhone. The market then saw Google drive the development and release of Android. Most recently, Palm debuted its WebOS, which we'll consider a new entrant, given its significant departure from the previous Palm platform.
What does it mean? The smartphone market has become increasingly competitive, driven in large part by software differentiation. Positive results for the OSX and Android platforms have highlighted the potential for companies with software know-how to provide a compelling OS product to the market and compete. This only intensifies the battle over segments of the application developer community and I expect, will drive some of the initiative to improve application portability across platforms. For example, it has been announced that Palm's WebOS will utilize web standards like Java, HTML, and C/C++. By allowing developers to write programs in these web standards, Palm has lowered the cost of developing an application for their platform, aiding them in the struggle to secure developer mindshare.
A need for improved security
It is only a matter of time. Smartphones are becoming more and more like mobile computers, and as they do, the reality of the need for mobile security becomes more apparent. Mobile data usage is on the rise, and the mobile internet experience is advancing to approach the desktop experience. Likewise, the same applications that are driving shifts in the OS market present a very real threat to handset security, as users are introducing more and more third-party developed code into the handset.
What does it mean? Historically, operators have been able to restrict much of the traffic on their networks, and prevent large-scale viruses and malware. However, phishing sites and emails are becoming more clever, and the number of mobile users with more advanced browsing capabilities is steadily growing. Additionally, most application distribution channels have recognized the need to certify the applications provided in their online stores. Even still, smartphones are expected to begin implementing more complete antivirus suites, and security within the hardware will be emphasized as well.
The blurring distinction between smartphones and feature-rich phones
The last key trend involves the convergence of the smartphone and feature-rich handset tiers. Smartphones, now targeting consumers in addition to enterprise users, are becoming more diverse in their form factor, hardware capabilities, and average selling price. Likewise, feature-rich handsets are now requiring greater multimedia and applications processing.
What does it mean? Expect these two handset tiers to continue to converge in terms of form factor and function. As a result, the software functionality in feature-rich handsets will need to improve. The proprietary RTOS solutions that have been employed by OEMs in the past can be quite costly to maintain, and making substantial changes to them can be even more expensive. If increasing functionality necesitates a feature phone with a separate application processor in addition to a comms processor, it makes sense to utilize a Linux standard OS, which allows for a smaller memory and processing footprint than exists for operating systems like Windows Mobile or Android. The end result could be a significant market for Linux in feature-rich phones, where proprietary RTOS solutions have existed in the past.
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