India mobile service market to reach US$30 billion by 2013, says Gartner
Total mobile service revenues in India are projected to grow at a CAGR of 12.5% from 2009-2013 to exceed US$30 billion, according to Gartner. The India mobile subscriber base is set to exceed 771 million connections by 2013, growing at a CAGR of 14.3% in the same period from 452 million in 2009. This growth is poised to continue through the forecast period, and India is expected to remain the world's second largest wireless market after China in terms of mobile connections.
"The India mobile industry has now moved out of its hyper growth mode, but it will continue to grow at double-digit rates for the next three years as operators focus on rural parts of the country," said Madhusudan Gupta, senior research analyst at Gartner. "Growth will also be triggered by increased adoption of value-added services, which are relevant to both rural and urban markets."
Mobile market penetration is projected to increase from 38.7% in 2009 to 63. 5% in 2013. Gartner said this growth is primarily attributed to the operators increasing their focus on the rural market, local consumer durable and electronic companies entering the domestic mobile handset segment, and lower handset prices.
The India mobile connection market continues to be dominated by prepaid subscribers. Prepaid connections accounted for more than 93% of all mobile connections in 2008 and are expected to grow to more than 96% of the connection base by 2013, surpassing 741 million versus 312 million in 2008. The postpaid subscriber base will exceed 29 million subscribers by 2013, growing at 2.5% from 23 million in 2008.
The churn rate in India is 53.2% in 2009, and despite a maturing market, the ratio is expected to increase to 59.6% in 2013.
Data revenues driving growth
Revenues from data services will significantly contribute to the overall growth of mobile services in India, with a CAGR of 16.8% from 2009 to 2013. Prepaid subscribers are expected to adopt data services faster than the post-paid segment. The bulk of revenues will continue to come from voice services. However, with the increased growth in data services, the percentage of revenues coming from voice will reduce from 89% in 2008 to 86% in 2013.
Expected changes in the Indian Telecom landscape
Gartner predicts a significant drop in average revenues per user (ARPU) as the bulk of new subscribers will come from rural areas that are dominated by prepaid subscribers. Also, voice tariffs will decline substantially in 2009 as new operators join the market. Growth will be triggered by increased adoption of value-added services, which are relevant to both rural and urban markets. However, the bulk of new connections will come from data cards and multi-SIM use. Voice usage will increase steadily, but data usage will grow more strongly with the increased consumption of value-added services.
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"The India mobile industry has now moved out of its hyper growth mode, but it will continue to grow at double-digit rates for the next three years as operators focus on rural parts of the country," said Madhusudan Gupta, senior research analyst at Gartner. "Growth will also be triggered by increased adoption of value-added services, which are relevant to both rural and urban markets."
Mobile market penetration is projected to increase from 38.7% in 2009 to 63. 5% in 2013. Gartner said this growth is primarily attributed to the operators increasing their focus on the rural market, local consumer durable and electronic companies entering the domestic mobile handset segment, and lower handset prices.
The India mobile connection market continues to be dominated by prepaid subscribers. Prepaid connections accounted for more than 93% of all mobile connections in 2008 and are expected to grow to more than 96% of the connection base by 2013, surpassing 741 million versus 312 million in 2008. The postpaid subscriber base will exceed 29 million subscribers by 2013, growing at 2.5% from 23 million in 2008.
The churn rate in India is 53.2% in 2009, and despite a maturing market, the ratio is expected to increase to 59.6% in 2013.
Data revenues driving growth
Revenues from data services will significantly contribute to the overall growth of mobile services in India, with a CAGR of 16.8% from 2009 to 2013. Prepaid subscribers are expected to adopt data services faster than the post-paid segment. The bulk of revenues will continue to come from voice services. However, with the increased growth in data services, the percentage of revenues coming from voice will reduce from 89% in 2008 to 86% in 2013.
Expected changes in the Indian Telecom landscape
Gartner predicts a significant drop in average revenues per user (ARPU) as the bulk of new subscribers will come from rural areas that are dominated by prepaid subscribers. Also, voice tariffs will decline substantially in 2009 as new operators join the market. Growth will be triggered by increased adoption of value-added services, which are relevant to both rural and urban markets. However, the bulk of new connections will come from data cards and multi-SIM use. Voice usage will increase steadily, but data usage will grow more strongly with the increased consumption of value-added services.
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