Solar Installations in California, Other Areas Continue to Shine
But the overall outlook for 2009 is down.
Photovoltaics (PV) has not been immune to the ongoing economic crisis gripping the world.
The debt financing of solar plants for commercial customers and investor syndicates has slowed dramatically across Europe, the United States and other regions that had been steadily growing in solar installations prior to the fourth quarter of 2008.
However, the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 and the Solar Investment Tax Credit of 2008 has helped those looking to install Photovoltaic (PV) systems in the United States by allowing 30 percent of a project’s cost to be rebated and by creating government loan guarantees for commercial projects. Because of this, iSuppli Corp. believes these initiatives will help offset, to a limited degree, the negative factors that have impacted the U.S. PV market.
In particular, California has taken the initiative to be one of the leaders in the PV market by taking advantage of these incentives. Despite the credit crunch in the first quarter, installations increased to 77 Megawatts (MW) during the period, up from just 38MW in 2008. Beyond this, applications for rebates continued to increase, reaching 65MW in the second quarter, with only half the quarter counted in this data. This is a very encouraging sign.
This is extremely beneficial for those investors wishing to take advantage of the new federal tax credit. It’s also a boost for those wanting to install residential household systems using the higher incentives from the California Solar Initiative Program (CSI). Pacific Gas and Electric (PG&E) is about to reach step six of the solar energy buyback rebate, resulting in lower rates and people that still want to lock in the more favorable step-five rate. The same is happening for Southern California Edison and other public utility companies in the state.
Overall, iSuppli expects 350MW to be installed in California during the year of 2009. This is far and away the most of any state in America as the rest of the country is expected to build only 132MW in 2009.
Italy’s Hot and Cold
California isn’t the only region still pushing ahead with plans for PV installations. The Italian electricity administration authority, Gestione Servizi Electriche (GSE), announced in April that 338MW had been installed in 2008. This far exceeds the 220MW that iSuppli originally forecasted for the country. Because of this, iSuppli is increasing its Italian forecast for 2009 to 580MW, up from 350MW.
While these are encouraging signs for the country, it cannot hide the ongoing weakness of the grid backbone in southern Italy. In the spring, the nation’s PV power plants had to be disconnected in Apulia because the grid was oversupplied.
Global Decline
According to iSuppli’s latest figures and feedback from companies worldwide, about 4 Gigawatts (GW) worth of new PV systems will be installed in 2009, with the majority of these installations coming from Germany at 1.5GW, Italy at 580MW and another 300MW to 400MW coming from Spain, California and Japan.
The installation outlook until 2013 shows strong growth mostly because government programs will ramp up and access to capital will become easier for governments and consumers alike. iSuppli is maintaining its forecast that installations will return to growth rates above 40 percent from the second half of 2010 onward.
But for 2009, revenues globally will decline by as much as 34 percent. This is less than the original 40 percent decline iSuppli forecasted in April because installations have increased by as much as 10 percent since that time.
Photovoltaics (PV) has not been immune to the ongoing economic crisis gripping the world.
The debt financing of solar plants for commercial customers and investor syndicates has slowed dramatically across Europe, the United States and other regions that had been steadily growing in solar installations prior to the fourth quarter of 2008.
However, the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 and the Solar Investment Tax Credit of 2008 has helped those looking to install Photovoltaic (PV) systems in the United States by allowing 30 percent of a project’s cost to be rebated and by creating government loan guarantees for commercial projects. Because of this, iSuppli Corp. believes these initiatives will help offset, to a limited degree, the negative factors that have impacted the U.S. PV market.
In particular, California has taken the initiative to be one of the leaders in the PV market by taking advantage of these incentives. Despite the credit crunch in the first quarter, installations increased to 77 Megawatts (MW) during the period, up from just 38MW in 2008. Beyond this, applications for rebates continued to increase, reaching 65MW in the second quarter, with only half the quarter counted in this data. This is a very encouraging sign.
This is extremely beneficial for those investors wishing to take advantage of the new federal tax credit. It’s also a boost for those wanting to install residential household systems using the higher incentives from the California Solar Initiative Program (CSI). Pacific Gas and Electric (PG&E) is about to reach step six of the solar energy buyback rebate, resulting in lower rates and people that still want to lock in the more favorable step-five rate. The same is happening for Southern California Edison and other public utility companies in the state.
Overall, iSuppli expects 350MW to be installed in California during the year of 2009. This is far and away the most of any state in America as the rest of the country is expected to build only 132MW in 2009.
Italy’s Hot and Cold
California isn’t the only region still pushing ahead with plans for PV installations. The Italian electricity administration authority, Gestione Servizi Electriche (GSE), announced in April that 338MW had been installed in 2008. This far exceeds the 220MW that iSuppli originally forecasted for the country. Because of this, iSuppli is increasing its Italian forecast for 2009 to 580MW, up from 350MW.
While these are encouraging signs for the country, it cannot hide the ongoing weakness of the grid backbone in southern Italy. In the spring, the nation’s PV power plants had to be disconnected in Apulia because the grid was oversupplied.
Global Decline
According to iSuppli’s latest figures and feedback from companies worldwide, about 4 Gigawatts (GW) worth of new PV systems will be installed in 2009, with the majority of these installations coming from Germany at 1.5GW, Italy at 580MW and another 300MW to 400MW coming from Spain, California and Japan.
The installation outlook until 2013 shows strong growth mostly because government programs will ramp up and access to capital will become easier for governments and consumers alike. iSuppli is maintaining its forecast that installations will return to growth rates above 40 percent from the second half of 2010 onward.
But for 2009, revenues globally will decline by as much as 34 percent. This is less than the original 40 percent decline iSuppli forecasted in April because installations have increased by as much as 10 percent since that time.
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