J'son & Of partners Of consulting: Fixed and mobile [SHPD] - prospect for development
The [konsaltingovaya] company Of j'son & Of partners Of consulting presented the results of the renovated studies of the Russian market for the fixed and mobile wide-band access. Given data, as declares company, are obtained as a result both its own studies of the Russian market for wire and wireless technologies and according to the results of the reports of participants on the profile measures.
In many respects because of the development of the networks of third generation (3G) incomes from the assignment of the transmission of data in the mobile networks swiftly grow. According to the forecasts Of j'son & Of partners Of consulting, already in 2010 the joint gain of mobile operators in this segment will exceed the incomes of the operators of the fixed connection from the assignment of services [SHPD] in the particular segment (more than 60 billion rub.), and subsequently - it will exceed them.
In the company also they forecast, that by 2013 a quantity of mobile users of 3G/4G will exceed 71 million, i.e., half of the population of Russia. The domination of mobile players on the market [SHPD] will become reality in the intermediate-term (3-5 years) future, and the deepening of the processes of consolidation will lead to the fact that the mobile and fixed networks will either coexist within the framework one group of company or (less probably) closely interact in the process of the rendering of services (concept FMC).
On the sums of 2009 the portion of the incomes of the Russian operators “of Big Three” from the services of the transmission of data in the joint incomes on Russia was of about 5-6% (1,2% - on the active users of USB- modems), while in world leaders this index reaches 40-50%. This fact indicates the large potential of the Russian market for the mobile Internet, realized on the base of technologies WCDMA/HSPA.
In the opinion J'son & Of partners Of consulting, operators “Big Three” will smoothly migrate to the side LTE through “intermediate” technology HSPA+ (peak speed - to 42 [Mbit]/c in the straight channel), maximally preserving the investments, inserted in 3G. In this case the number of the important players (to an example, the company “[Svyazinvesta]”, which obtained recently the frequencies of in the range 2,3-2,4 GHz in tens of regions of Russia for the building of the mobile networks of radio-access) will build networks LTE immediately, passing the third generation (although not excluded, in the case “Of [svyazinvesta]” it will be begun to operate the infrastructure “Of [skay] of link”). In the company they also consider that the number of active subscribers 3G in Russia will increase with 5,8 millions in 2009. to 13,6 millions in 2010 ; and by 2014. a quantity of users 3G, that leave into the network through the telephones with support to 3G, will exceed the mark of 100 mln. in this case, practically it will be equaled with a quantity of users of USB- modems in 2011, and during the subsequent years - considerably will exceed they. In this case the essential part of the users (to 20%) will use for Internet access of 3G-[smartfony] and laptop computers c by the external or built-in radio-modem depending on circumstances.
In many respects because of the development of the networks of third generation (3G) incomes from the assignment of the transmission of data in the mobile networks swiftly grow. According to the forecasts Of j'son & Of partners Of consulting, already in 2010 the joint gain of mobile operators in this segment will exceed the incomes of the operators of the fixed connection from the assignment of services [SHPD] in the particular segment (more than 60 billion rub.), and subsequently - it will exceed them.
In the company also they forecast, that by 2013 a quantity of mobile users of 3G/4G will exceed 71 million, i.e., half of the population of Russia. The domination of mobile players on the market [SHPD] will become reality in the intermediate-term (3-5 years) future, and the deepening of the processes of consolidation will lead to the fact that the mobile and fixed networks will either coexist within the framework one group of company or (less probably) closely interact in the process of the rendering of services (concept FMC).
On the sums of 2009 the portion of the incomes of the Russian operators “of Big Three” from the services of the transmission of data in the joint incomes on Russia was of about 5-6% (1,2% - on the active users of USB- modems), while in world leaders this index reaches 40-50%. This fact indicates the large potential of the Russian market for the mobile Internet, realized on the base of technologies WCDMA/HSPA.
In the opinion J'son & Of partners Of consulting, operators “Big Three” will smoothly migrate to the side LTE through “intermediate” technology HSPA+ (peak speed - to 42 [Mbit]/c in the straight channel), maximally preserving the investments, inserted in 3G. In this case the number of the important players (to an example, the company “[Svyazinvesta]”, which obtained recently the frequencies of in the range 2,3-2,4 GHz in tens of regions of Russia for the building of the mobile networks of radio-access) will build networks LTE immediately, passing the third generation (although not excluded, in the case “Of [svyazinvesta]” it will be begun to operate the infrastructure “Of [skay] of link”). In the company they also consider that the number of active subscribers 3G in Russia will increase with 5,8 millions in 2009. to 13,6 millions in 2010 ; and by 2014. a quantity of users 3G, that leave into the network through the telephones with support to 3G, will exceed the mark of 100 mln. in this case, practically it will be equaled with a quantity of users of USB- modems in 2011, and during the subsequent years - considerably will exceed they. In this case the essential part of the users (to 20%) will use for Internet access of 3G-[smartfony] and laptop computers c by the external or built-in radio-modem depending on circumstances.
Posts
No comments: