ComNews Review: The development of the cellular market in the CIS
The consulting company prepared a report ComNews Research of the study, whose task was to study the development of the cellular market in the CIS countries. This report analyzes the dynamics of key indicators of the mobile communications market in the CIS countries, as well as the competitive situation in all 12 markets.
In 2010, Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Russia and Ukraine in terms of penetration of cellular services to overcome boundary of 100%. Azerbaijan, Kyrgyzstan, Moldova and Tajikistan on the verge of complete penetration of cellular services in adult and able-bodied population - from 85% to 100%, and only in Georgia, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan, mobile services are 63% -75% of the total population.
A single trend for all 12 countries of the Commonwealth is also a decrease in average revenue per user (ARPU) and parallel growth expectancy conversation subscriber (MoU). The average for all countries surveyed annually ARPU decreased by 10%, while the MoU, on the contrary, grew at an average for all countries by 15% annually.
With the reduction ARPU, average cost rate minute (APPM) also showed a negative trend, decreasing by an average of 22% annually in dollar terms for all countries. The greatest decrease in APPM as a whole for two years showed the Ukrainian market - 68%, while the smallest decrease recorded in Tajikistan's market - 1%.
Despite the crisis, currency devaluation and a reduction in ARPU, mobile markets have shown growth of total revenue for all countries in the order of 7% annually in dollar terms. The biggest increase for two years proved the market of Uzbekistan, an increase of 36%, the lowest - in Armenia, a decrease of 70%, the Russian market has shown an increase of 5%.
The second common for all CIS countries the trend is the increase in the share of additional services in total income of operators, as well as redistribution of the structure itself of VAS revenue in favor of the segment data and premium content. If in 2008 the share of additional services in total revenue of mobile operators of the CIS countries was in the range from 8% to 14% and an average of 9.5%, by the end of 2010, the average percentages of VAS in the total revenue amounted to 11 % and the minimum and maximum values were recorded at 9% and 21%, respectively. This is caused by a gradual saturation of consumer demand voice services, as well as development of infrastructure of cellular networks, allowing the use of mobile Internet at cheaper rates and at high speeds and volumes of data.
In all the countries of the competitive situation and the concentration of either significantly improved or did not change significantly, which is on the one hand due to subscriber growth and Cell phone coverage areas in the country, but is also one of the main factors reducing the cost of services and increase the diversity Additional services and offers. The least competitive cellular market by end of 2010 is presented in Turkmenistan, Armenia, Moldova and Kazakhstan, the most competitive - in Tajikistan and Russia. In this case the cellular market in Kazakhstan was the only one where the number of market participants has not decreased but rather increased, but the effect on the appearance of a third GSM-operator will be visible only up to 2011. Despite the positive trend, the 12 countries under consideration have not yet reached the level of moderately concentrated market that does not require antitrust scrutiny committee.
In 2010, Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Russia and Ukraine in terms of penetration of cellular services to overcome boundary of 100%. Azerbaijan, Kyrgyzstan, Moldova and Tajikistan on the verge of complete penetration of cellular services in adult and able-bodied population - from 85% to 100%, and only in Georgia, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan, mobile services are 63% -75% of the total population.
A single trend for all 12 countries of the Commonwealth is also a decrease in average revenue per user (ARPU) and parallel growth expectancy conversation subscriber (MoU). The average for all countries surveyed annually ARPU decreased by 10%, while the MoU, on the contrary, grew at an average for all countries by 15% annually.
With the reduction ARPU, average cost rate minute (APPM) also showed a negative trend, decreasing by an average of 22% annually in dollar terms for all countries. The greatest decrease in APPM as a whole for two years showed the Ukrainian market - 68%, while the smallest decrease recorded in Tajikistan's market - 1%.
Despite the crisis, currency devaluation and a reduction in ARPU, mobile markets have shown growth of total revenue for all countries in the order of 7% annually in dollar terms. The biggest increase for two years proved the market of Uzbekistan, an increase of 36%, the lowest - in Armenia, a decrease of 70%, the Russian market has shown an increase of 5%.
The second common for all CIS countries the trend is the increase in the share of additional services in total income of operators, as well as redistribution of the structure itself of VAS revenue in favor of the segment data and premium content. If in 2008 the share of additional services in total revenue of mobile operators of the CIS countries was in the range from 8% to 14% and an average of 9.5%, by the end of 2010, the average percentages of VAS in the total revenue amounted to 11 % and the minimum and maximum values were recorded at 9% and 21%, respectively. This is caused by a gradual saturation of consumer demand voice services, as well as development of infrastructure of cellular networks, allowing the use of mobile Internet at cheaper rates and at high speeds and volumes of data.
In all the countries of the competitive situation and the concentration of either significantly improved or did not change significantly, which is on the one hand due to subscriber growth and Cell phone coverage areas in the country, but is also one of the main factors reducing the cost of services and increase the diversity Additional services and offers. The least competitive cellular market by end of 2010 is presented in Turkmenistan, Armenia, Moldova and Kazakhstan, the most competitive - in Tajikistan and Russia. In this case the cellular market in Kazakhstan was the only one where the number of market participants has not decreased but rather increased, but the effect on the appearance of a third GSM-operator will be visible only up to 2011. Despite the positive trend, the 12 countries under consideration have not yet reached the level of moderately concentrated market that does not require antitrust scrutiny committee.
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