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China defies global decline in wireless carrier spending, iSuppli says

China is expected to defy the downturn in the global wireless infrastructure equipment business in 2009, as the nation's 3G network rollout drives world-beating double-digit growth in carrier capital spending, according to iSuppli.

Spending on wireless infrastructure equipment in China is expected to reach US$6.2 billion in 2009, up 13.2% from US$5.5 billion in 2008. No other nation will generate such robust revenue growth, with the second-fastest rising region being India at 4.5%, iSuppli said.

In May 2008, China's government finally announced plans to award three 3G licenses as part of a major restructuring plan. Under this restructuring plan, the government has moved to create three telecom providers, China Mobile, China Netcom (GSM) and China Unicom/Telecom, each with fixed line and mobile assets. This has paved the way for the rise in the nation's infrastructure spending in 2009.

China Mobile will roll out a nationwide TD-SCDMA network in 2009, building on trials in major cities, iSuppli said. China Unicom will launch its W-CDMA services in the second half of 2009, while China Telecom has already started to secure quotes from equipment suppliers for the build-out of its 3G CDMA2000-1x-EV DO network, according to iSuppli.

Carriers in other growth markets, India, South Asia and Africa, in 2009 will continue to invest in expanding the coverage of their voice-centric 2G/2.5G networks in the face of strong subscriber growth in these parts of the world, said Jagdish Rebello, director and principal analyst of wireless communications for iSuppli. However, the pace of investments in networking infrastructure will be slower than originally forecast.

iSuppli expects most spending on 3G in India will start in 2010, as operators this year will be cautious in their 3G investments while conserving cash flow following expenditure on spectrum acquisition.

The global contraction in wireless infrastructure spending primarily will be driven by carriers in the developed nations, slowing down the pace of their investments in data-centric 3G/3.5G technologies, according to iSuppli.

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