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Dutch mobile market resists downturn, grows 4.4% in Q1

The Dutch mobile industry generated EUR 1.616 billion in revenue in the first quarter of 2009, up 4.4 percent compared to the same quarter last year, but down a seasonal 1.1 percent from Q4. According to Telecompaper's quarterly mobile market monitor, the increase was largely due to the 20.3 percent annual growth in messaging and data services, but also voice revenue held up compared to last year.

KPN was the only operator to post sequential growth in service revenues in the first quarter, growing 1.2 percent compared to the fourth quarter of 2008. This was mainly due to the inclusion of Sympac figures starting in Q1. T-Mobile and Vodafone both showed a small drop of around 3.0 percent in revenues. When compared to the same period last year, both Vodafone and KPN showed an increase its revenues. However, KPN’s increase was double, strengthening its position as market leader with a 47.0 percent share of revenues. Vodafone saw its market share increase slightly to 28.6 percent, while T-Mobile’s share fell to 24.4 percent from 25.9 percent in the same period last year.

The number of mobile subscribers increased by 187,000 in the first quarter to 21.1 million at the end of March. This was the lowest growth in the last seven quarters. Market penetration increased to 127.6 percent at the end of Q1, from 120.6 percent a year earlier. KPN increased its market leader position to 47.8 percent of all subscribers, while Vodafone saw its market share increase to 21.9 percent, and T-Mobile dropped to 24.8 percent, mainly due to a restatement of Orange customers.

Telecompaper lowered its full-year outlook, predicting flat to 0.2 percent lower services revenues, versus a previous estimate of stable to 0.5 percent growth.Telecompaper remains confident that the negative short-term outlook for the Dutch economy will not have a big impact on mobile adoption, as mobile is more and more seen as a commodity product. For the period 2008-2013, the

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