Palm Pre stands to shake up smartphone status quo, says iSuppli
Palm's new Pre smartphone holds strong potential for robust sales growth, and may have a major influence on other platforms as well as the technology supply chain, according to iSuppli.
Palm Pre shipments could amount to 1.1 million units in 2009. However, if Palm quickly introduces a new Pre that supports the 3G GSM standard, sales could rise to 1.3 million during the year. Furthermore, if Palm opens up the licensing of its webOS operating system used in the Pre, the software could have a wider influence beyond the company's own products.
"Palm's webOS appears to be superior to the Mac OS X used in the iPhone in the crucial area of multitasking capabilities," said Tina Teng, senior analyst, wireless communications, for iSuppli. "This key point of differentiation, combined with the product's multi-touch display, could be enough for Palm to carve out a significant share of the smartphone market."
Another key allure of webOS is its use of widgets for accessing data and applications like the iPhone, rather than the folders used in Microsoft's Windows OS. The consensus among most users appears to be that widgets provide a more intuitive interface than folders.
Because of this, there may be strong demand for webOS from other smartphone makers, said iSuppli.
"If Palm decides to license webOS to other companies, it could follow in the footsteps of Google's Android operating system, which is expected to expand its share of global smartphone operating systems to grow by nearly a factor of 12 from 2008 to 2010," Teng added.
This could lay the foundation for webOS to challenge Apple's Mac OS X for leadership in the highly intuitive smartphone operating system market.
Minding the store
Palm could further boost the prospects of webOS if the company opens an application store that sells programs that work with the operating system, similar to Apple's App Store.
"An application store would make Palm a more complete solution provider to its end customers, allowing it to provide not only a hardware platform and operating system but also the programs essential to take advantage of the capabilities of a smartphone," Teng said.
Teng noted that industry rumors have circulated since the Consumer Electronics Show (CES) in January that Palm will offer an online applications catalog. With the arrival of software allowing developers to produce programs that can be compiled to work on multiple mobile operating systems, Palm's store likely will grow rapidly to sport a large number of applications.
Battle of the applications processors
The potential long-term success of the Pre promises to benefit Palm's applications-processor semiconductor supplier, Texas Instruments (TI).
While TI in 2008 remained the leading supplier of standalone media/application/graphics processing chips for mobile handsets, number-two Samsung Electronics is closing in on the lead, according to iSuppli. Samsung's share of global market revenues rose to 16.4% in 2008, up from 10% in 2007. In contrast, TI's share declined to 16.8% in 2008, down from 23% in 2007.
"Owing to rising shipments of the iPhone, which uses Samsung's media processing silicon, the company is closing the gap," said Francis Sideco, senior analyst, wireless communications, for iSuppli. "Pre's success could help TI regain some of that share as Pre sales will help boost TI's revenues for its OMAP line. It will also validate TI's OMAP approach by demonstrating the need for powerful standalone applications processors in high-end smart phone devices."
Panel shortage?
The Pre likely makes use of a low-temperature polysilicon (LTPS) LCD display, which offers superior picture quality compared to regular TFT-LCD panels used in most mobile phones, iSuppli speculated.
This could put constraints on availability of LTPS LCD supplies, which is a popular display choice in the growing smartphone marker segment.
"If the Pre is successful and large volumes are shipped in the coming years, LTPS displays could go into shortage because the supply is limited to a few suppliers that operate smaller generation fabs capable of producing them," said Vinita Jakhanwal, principal analyst, small/medium displays, for iSuppli.
iSuppli: Worldwide mobile handset processor ranking by revenues, 2007-2008 ($US)
2007
Rank
2008
Rank
Company
2007
Market share
2008
Market share
1
1
TI
23.0%
16.8%
3
2
Samsung
10.0%
16.4%
2
3
Renesas
11.9%
11.3%
4
4
Marvell
7.0%
7.8%
22
5
STMicroelectronics
0.2%
7.2%
Top-5 companies
52.2%
59.5%
All cthers
47.8%
40.5%
Total semiconductor
100.0%
100.0%
Palm Pre shipments could amount to 1.1 million units in 2009. However, if Palm quickly introduces a new Pre that supports the 3G GSM standard, sales could rise to 1.3 million during the year. Furthermore, if Palm opens up the licensing of its webOS operating system used in the Pre, the software could have a wider influence beyond the company's own products.
"Palm's webOS appears to be superior to the Mac OS X used in the iPhone in the crucial area of multitasking capabilities," said Tina Teng, senior analyst, wireless communications, for iSuppli. "This key point of differentiation, combined with the product's multi-touch display, could be enough for Palm to carve out a significant share of the smartphone market."
Another key allure of webOS is its use of widgets for accessing data and applications like the iPhone, rather than the folders used in Microsoft's Windows OS. The consensus among most users appears to be that widgets provide a more intuitive interface than folders.
Because of this, there may be strong demand for webOS from other smartphone makers, said iSuppli.
"If Palm decides to license webOS to other companies, it could follow in the footsteps of Google's Android operating system, which is expected to expand its share of global smartphone operating systems to grow by nearly a factor of 12 from 2008 to 2010," Teng added.
This could lay the foundation for webOS to challenge Apple's Mac OS X for leadership in the highly intuitive smartphone operating system market.
Minding the store
Palm could further boost the prospects of webOS if the company opens an application store that sells programs that work with the operating system, similar to Apple's App Store.
"An application store would make Palm a more complete solution provider to its end customers, allowing it to provide not only a hardware platform and operating system but also the programs essential to take advantage of the capabilities of a smartphone," Teng said.
Teng noted that industry rumors have circulated since the Consumer Electronics Show (CES) in January that Palm will offer an online applications catalog. With the arrival of software allowing developers to produce programs that can be compiled to work on multiple mobile operating systems, Palm's store likely will grow rapidly to sport a large number of applications.
Battle of the applications processors
The potential long-term success of the Pre promises to benefit Palm's applications-processor semiconductor supplier, Texas Instruments (TI).
While TI in 2008 remained the leading supplier of standalone media/application/graphics processing chips for mobile handsets, number-two Samsung Electronics is closing in on the lead, according to iSuppli. Samsung's share of global market revenues rose to 16.4% in 2008, up from 10% in 2007. In contrast, TI's share declined to 16.8% in 2008, down from 23% in 2007.
"Owing to rising shipments of the iPhone, which uses Samsung's media processing silicon, the company is closing the gap," said Francis Sideco, senior analyst, wireless communications, for iSuppli. "Pre's success could help TI regain some of that share as Pre sales will help boost TI's revenues for its OMAP line. It will also validate TI's OMAP approach by demonstrating the need for powerful standalone applications processors in high-end smart phone devices."
Panel shortage?
The Pre likely makes use of a low-temperature polysilicon (LTPS) LCD display, which offers superior picture quality compared to regular TFT-LCD panels used in most mobile phones, iSuppli speculated.
This could put constraints on availability of LTPS LCD supplies, which is a popular display choice in the growing smartphone marker segment.
"If the Pre is successful and large volumes are shipped in the coming years, LTPS displays could go into shortage because the supply is limited to a few suppliers that operate smaller generation fabs capable of producing them," said Vinita Jakhanwal, principal analyst, small/medium displays, for iSuppli.
iSuppli: Worldwide mobile handset processor ranking by revenues, 2007-2008 ($US)
2007
Rank
2008
Rank
Company
2007
Market share
2008
Market share
1
1
TI
23.0%
16.8%
3
2
Samsung
10.0%
16.4%
2
3
Renesas
11.9%
11.3%
4
4
Marvell
7.0%
7.8%
22
5
STMicroelectronics
0.2%
7.2%
Top-5 companies
52.2%
59.5%
All cthers
47.8%
40.5%
Total semiconductor
100.0%
100.0%
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